BlackRock's leader Larry Fink notes that Treasury yields could climb to the highest level in over two decades, with inflation prompting a sell-off in the bond market that extends to the stock market.

 

The Chief Executive Officer of the globe's largest asset manager forecasted that the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond could increase to up to 5.5%, contingent on rising inflation that reduces demand for government debt. This would mark the highest yield on the 10-year Treasury note in about 25 years, as the bond last reached 5.5% in 2000.

 

Yields of such magnitude could unsettle investors because many likely aren't preparing for the potential of increased inflation, Fink observed. He referenced policies from the current administration that could introduce new pricing strains into the economy.

 

"I think it will release all this private capital, and we're going to experience substantial growth," Fink shared with CNBC on the fringes of the World Economic Forum on Thursday. "Simultaneously, some of this will introduce new inflationary pressures. And I do believe that's potentially the threat that the markets might not be considering."

 

He further commented: "There exists a possibility that we might observe the 10-year surpassing 5%, perhaps even reaching 5.5%. That could stun the equity market. It would not be a favorable situation."

 

Fink does not perceive the 10-year yield exceeding 5% as his primary scenario, but he suggested that should it happen, it might likely trigger declines in the stock market, noting that such a scenario could have a "significantly adverse effect" on equities and might "necessitate a reassessment."

 

Bond yields have seen substantial fluctuations over the past year, partly driven by concerns about a resurgence of inflation, which could result in interest rates remaining elevated for a longer period as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy to curb prices.

 

Meanwhile, economists have criticized some aspects of President Donald Trump's policies — like his proposal to impose high tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada — as being inflationary. Trump has refuted such claims, assuring to reduce costs for Americans in his subsequent term.

 

Nonetheless, bond investors have been very responsive to news regarding Trump's trade strategy, with yields spiking earlier in January amid apprehensions of assertive trade policies and a thriving economy. The 10-year neared 5% this month before retreating due to more favorable inflation figures and unexpectedly mild tariff directives on the first day of Trump's term this week.

 

Worries about the national debt have also pressured the bond market. A faction of investors known as bond vigilantes could withdraw from purchasing Treasurys or liquidate their holdings to push the government towards greater fiscal discipline.

 

Fink noted that yields reaching 5% could be a crucial trigger in spurring dialogue around managing the US debt. The federal debt balance reached a historic $36.2 trillion on Thursday.

The challenged Chinese autonomous trucking company TuSimple has now rebranded itself as CreateAI, shifting its focus towards video games and animation, the announcement was made on Thursday.

 

This announcement follows GM's closure of its Cruise robotaxi division this month, marking a phase where the once-thriving self-driving startup industry is starting to eliminate laggards. TuSimple, operating in both U.S. and China markets, faced its own problems, including vehicle safety concerns, a $189 million settlement from a securities fraud lawsuit, and its removal from Nasdaq in February.

 

Over two years after CEO Cheng Lu rejoined the company in this role after being ousted, he now forecasts the business might reach a break-even point by 2026.

 

This optimism is tied to a video game based on popular martial arts novels by Jin Yong, planned for an initial release in that year, according to Cheng. He foresees generating "several hundred million" in revenue by 2027 when the complete version is launched.

 

Prior to its delisting, TuSimple reported a loss of $500,000 during the first three quarters of 2023 and invested $164.4 million in research and development during that time frame.

 

Company co-founder Mo Chen has a "long-standing connection" with the Jin Yong family and initiated work back in 2021 to produce an animated feature based on the novels, as Cheng explained.

 

The company touts its artificial intelligence expertise in developing autonomous driving software as providing a foundation for the development of generative AI, which is the advanced technology powering OpenAI’s ChatGPT, able to create human-like responses to user inputs.

 

In conjunction with the CreateAI rebranding, the company has launched its first significant AI model named Ruyi, an open-source visual work model available on the Hugging Face platform.

 

"Our shareholders clearly recognize the value in this transformation and are eager to progress in this new direction," Cheng expressed. "Both our management team and Board of Directors have received tremendous support from our shareholders." The company is slated to hold its annual shareholder meeting on Friday. Cheng stated the company intends to expand its workforce to around 500 next year, up from the current 300.

 

Co-founder Xiaodi Hou, claiming to be the largest individual shareholder at 29.7%, has openly questioned the shift towards gaming and animation. Hou announced his intention to withhold or oppose support at the shareholders meeting and advocated for the liquidation of the company. He has since launched his own autonomous trucking firm in Houston called Bot Auto, which secured $20 million in funding in September.

 

While still operating under the TuSimple brand, the company announced in August a collaboration with Shanghai Three Body Animation to produce the first animated feature film and video game based on the science fiction novel series "The Three-Body Problem."

 

The company mentioned at the time that it was inaugurating a new business sector dedicated to the creation of generative AI applications for video games and animation.

 

CreateAI anticipates reducing top-tier, known as triple A, game production costs by 70% within the next five to six years, according to Cheng. He did not disclose whether the company is in discussions with gaming giant Tencent.

 

When questioned about the implications of U.S. restrictions, Cheng asserted there were no difficulties, stating the company utilizes a combination of Chinese and non-Chinese cloud computing providers.

 

The U.S., under the Biden administration, has intensified restrictions on Chinese businesses’ access to advanced semiconductors necessary for powering generative AI.

 

У фондового рынка была тяжелая неделя, но, возможно, его также ждет тяжелый год в 2025 году.

 

Рынок переживает худшую неделю с марта 2023 года после того, как Федеральная резервная система США дала ястребиный прогноз по снижению процентных ставок в 2025 году. Но если взглянуть на внутренние показатели рынка, становится ясно, что ущерб был нанесен задолго до заседания ФРС в среду, и этот сигнал является историческим индикатором грядущих тяжелых времен.

 

В четверг количество падающих акций в S&P 500 опередило растущие уже 14 дней подряд.

 

Данные о повышении/понижении помогают измерить базовое участие в движении рынка, и недавняя слабость сигнализирует о том, что, хотя S&P 500 опустился всего на 4% от рекордного максимума, под капотом базового индекса есть повреждения.

 

Об этом свидетельствует то, что равновзвешенный индекс S&P 500 снизился на 7 % по сравнению с рекордным максимумом.

 

По словам Эда Клиссолда, главного американского стратега NDR, 14-дневная полоса неудач для линии роста-спада S&P 500 является худшей с 15 октября 1978 года.

 

По словам Клиссольда, 10-дневная и более полоса потерь в растущих акциях по отношению к падающим может быть плохим предзнаменованием для будущих доходов фондового рынка.

 

Хотя такой сценарий срабатывал всего шесть раз с 1972 года, он свидетельствует о низкой доходности S&P 500 в будущем. Индекс показал среднюю шестимесячную перспективную доходность в 0,1% после того, как промелькнули эти 10-дневные полосы убытков, по сравнению с типичным средним приростом в 4,5%, наблюдаемым во все периоды.

 

«Исследования с шестью случаями вряд ли можно назвать стратегией. Но вершины рынка должны с чего-то начинаться, а многие из них начинаются с дивергенции хлебных запасов, или с популярных средних, которые демонстрируют рост при небольшом количестве акций», - говорит Клиссольд.

 

Возможно, более показательным для фондового рынка будет то, сможет ли он провести восстановление, когда наступит один из самых «бычьих» сезонных периодов года - торговое окно Санта-Клауса.

 

Если он не сможет, это будет показательно, считает Клиссольд.

 

«Отсутствие ралли Санта-Клауса будет тревожным не только с сезонной точки зрения, но и позволит углубить дивергенции на рынке», - сказал стратег.

 

Клиссольда также беспокоят настроения инвесторов, которые с сентября демонстрируют признаки крайнего оптимизма. Согласно внутреннему опросу исследовательской фирмы, посвященному настроениям толпы, это седьмой по продолжительности отрезок в зоне чрезмерного оптимизма, если судить по данным с 1995 года.

 

«Несколько опросов достигли неустойчивых уровней», - сказал Клиссольд, предупредив, что любой разворот настроений может стать предупреждающим знаком для будущей доходности рынка.

 

В конечном счете, продолжающаяся слабость фондового рынка, особенно внутренних показателей, говорит о том, что 2025 год не будет для инвесторов таким же легким, как 2024-й.

 

«Если в ближайшие несколько недель фондовый рынок не сможет устранить недавние дивергенции, это будет означать, что наши опасения относительно более сложного 2025 года могут оправдаться», - сказал стратег.